Projection of Socioeconomic and Forced Migration for Probabilistic Population Projections

During the STIAS fellowship, I propose to work on issues that are vital for probabilistic population projections for all countries, notably the projection of international migration by age and sex, and the projection of refugee and other forced migration flows. I will also work on completing a book manuscript on Bayesian Demography. The proposed project is at the highest research level and is innovative, addressing issues that have been barely touched in the literature. It is highly interdisciplinary, involving mathematical statistics, demography and migration studies, which in turn impact climate science and food security. These features make it very relevant for STIAS, and the issues addressed are relevant to Africa generally. The project is highly feasible, as it advances an already well-established field in important ways.