African nations need to fully understand the treasure trove of critical raw materials (literally under their feet) and move from extractivism-led economic development to producers and local value creators: otherwise, the continent will be exporting its prosperity and be left behind. This was the main message from the fellow’s seminar of Simona Iammarino of the Gran Sasso Science Institute, Italy and the London School of Economics, UK.
“It’s paramount for African economies in the current technological paradigm shift to move once and for all beyond extractivism-led economic development,” she said.
Iammarino and her co-authors have been gathering data on the role of critical raw materials (CRMs) in contemporary economies, societies, technological transitions and global politics for eight years – looking at what these materials are, what they are used for, where they are found and who owns the patents and technologies that control their use.
“This research is slow and unfunded,” she said. “I’m currently looking for funders and for African partners.”
Due to changing definitions and uses there isn’t a definitive list of CRMs, but there are estimated to be over 50 including 17 rare earth elements. The most well-known are probably lithium and cobalt that are used in batteries for our laptops and mobile phones.
Iammarino explained that they are used in a wide range of advanced technologies, including those enabling the dual (digital and green) transition (e.g. rare earth elements for renewable energy, lithium and cobalt for batteries, etc.); and those used by industries across multiple value-chain stages and products.
“CRMs are like the vitamins and spices of current industrialisation. There are many functions that would be impossible without them,” she said.
“The rise of the digital and green transformation has exploded global demand,” she added. “This transition is dependent on these materials.”
She also explained that while their technological and industrial use is wide and pervasive, they are characterised by a high degree of geological scarcity and concentration.
“Some are highly concentrated in a few locations, regions and countries – sometimes also in countries and regions of high political conflict risk.”
“The current geopolitical order characterised by trade wars and tariffs makes all of this even more uncertain.” she added. “And, of course, China is playing a big role as world’s producer-in-chief and is at the centre of debates on trade flows and barriers, and collapsing multilateralism.”
She explained that the unique technological and economic importance of CRMs, combined with the high risk of global supply disruptions in the current geopolitical instability, represent serious concerns for most governments and international organisations.
“Countries including those in Africa led by the African Union have adopted CRM strategies, whose objectives pursue local economic development, employment and innovation opportunities, and value-chain upgrading. However, a gap exists in linking criticality for African national and regional economies to technological advancements happening elsewhere.”
How to study all of this?
Iammarino and her colleagues started researching this with a deep dive into the patents incorporating these materials and technologies. This has allowed them to grasp a better understanding of the technological innovations and development focused on these raw materials and the actors and geographies involved. They asked questions like what technologies rely on CRMs and how do they evolve; how does CRM supply influence country/region competitiveness and technological advantages; what are the main risks connected with the CRM-based paradigm; and, which places win and which lose in the current paradigm. This has involved examining huge datasets from global to firm-level patent data as well as geological deposit and reserves and export data, among others.
Iammarino explained the conceptual framework underlying this work in which the technological paradigm is a pattern of innovations that are a response to a related set of technological problems, addressing human needs and an evolving knowledge base.
She also related the story of copper production in Swansea in Wales to explain differences in extraction versus production. Swansea – or ‘Copperopolis’ – was the world capital for copper production until the end of the 19th century despite mining barely a particle of the metal.
Her work thus far is showing an increasing technological dependence on CRMs particularly rare metals. The share of patents using critical materials for renewable energy applications is also increasing rapidly and overtaking other applications.
“The trends over the last 40 years show increasing numbers of patents based on these materials with the highest absolute numbers for lithium, indium, cobalt and gallium.”
“Many of the top technology firms in the world – like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung, Toyota and Apple − own the patents –– so it’s also strengthening the monopolies of big technology.”
Looking at CRM production versus domestic reserves is showing clearly that China is producing much more than it naturally has. China has also transitioned from a resource-based supplier to a technology-intensive user.
“Overall, the geography of CRM production for renewable energy is dominated by China,” explained Iammarino. “There is also some in the Asia, Noth America and Europe, however, Africa currently produces nothing and is used solely for extraction. This means the critical mineral boom will leave Africa behind.”
“We know that many CRMs are found in sub-Saharan African countries. The resources are big but uncertain, specifically those needed for a green transition. There are no integrated and harmonised data, particularly at the subnational level.”
She and her colleagues are therefore attempting to map supply and demand, identify related networks and value chains, and looking for other localised economic variables in African economies.
“The technologies of the future are linked to these resources,” she said. “We need to fully understand the CRM-based power of African economies.”
They have therefore identified new research questions including: which of the transition (digital and green) technologies are most reliant on Africa’s natural endowment of CRMs and what are the trends in such technologies; which are the African subnational regions most implicated by the CRM-related technological demand; and, how do we ensure sustainable and equitable local value creation.
Research is needed to better grasp the impact of technological transitions, potential resource traps, the implications of resource-criticality, the trade-offs between technological and environmental objectives, and the strengthening of techno-based monopoly power.
She believes filling these and other knowledge gaps will help to provide a rigorous information base that can be used to identify and assess the actual opportunities and concurrent strategies for equitable and sustainable economic development in African countries and regions.
“Of course, Africa is aiming for a green transition but must also consider environmental and social injustices. Accountability and transparency are needed to empower local communities that own these resources,” she said. “Research also needs to address the paradox between technological advances, costs and benefits. To facilitate accountability, transparency and equitable development, geographical contextualisation is needed.”
“There’s a need to bring expertise together. Knowing more is important. Africa especially needs knowledge of what’s beneath its feet. Africa must come together as one voice and force,” she concluded. “The continent is sitting on huge wealth and is a unique voice in this.”